Suddenly, The New Home Sales Trend is Flat Again

New home sales increased only slightly in September,rnup 0.2 percent over August, bringing the annual rate of those sales torn467,000.  Sales were up 17.0 percent fromrnthe September 2013 pace of 399,000 units.</p

Perhaps bigger news in today’s joint release fromrnthe Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development was the<brevision to the August new home sales number. The initial report of those salesrnindicated a very significant 18 percent increase over July’s number, sendingrnsales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 504,000 and over the half-millionrnmark for the first time since May 2008.  The estimate was well over analysts’ expectations;rnthe consensus had been 430,000 units.  Turnsrnout the analysts were closer to the mark than the government agencies whichrntoday downgraded the August estimate to an annual rate of 466,000. </p

This takes what had been a potential trend of improvement back into the stagnant sub-500k range that’s been intact throughout the post-crisis period.</p

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On a non-adjusted basis there were an estimatedrn38,000 new homes sold in September, unchangedrnfrom the previous month and 7,000 more than a year earlier.  A house sold during the month was on thernmarket a median of 3.1 months.</p

At the end of September there were an estimatedrn207,000 new homes available for sale, a 5.3 month supply at the current absorptionrnrate.  This is up from 183,000 availablernhomes one year earlier which was at that time a 5.5 month supply.  </p

The median price of a new home sold in September wasrn$259,000 and the average sale price was $313,200.  In September 2013 the median and average salernprices were $269,800 and $321,400 respectively.</p

New home sales in the Northeast region werernunchanged from August at a seasonal rate of 30,000 units but that was an increasernof 20.0 percent from September 2013.  ThernMidwest had a 12.3 percent month-over-month increase and sales were 6.7 percentrnabove a year ago with an annual estimate of 64,000 units.</p

In the South annual sales were at a 261,000 unitrnpace, up 2.0 percent for the month and 18.6 percent on an annual basis.  The West saw an 8.9 percent drop in new homernsales in September but the rate remained 19.1 percent higher than the samernmonth in 2013 at 112,000 units.

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