Looking for Confirmation of Stabilization

This week is a busy one for the macroeconomy as markets and analysts will receive some of the first major indicators of how the nation is faring at the start of the third quarter. 

Expectations are high. “The US recession has ended, and the economy has embarked on a new path of recovery path in 3Q-2009,” said analyst John Herrmann from Herrmann Forecasting, in his weekly forecasting note.

Other analysts are similarly optimistic, particularly since the Q2 GDP report from Friday came in better than expected, indicating that the economy dropped “only” 1% between April and June. 

Moreover, revisions showed that inventories were slashed at a quicker rate than previously thought, which gives some hope that businesses will have to stock up more rapidly once the economy recovers.

Monday begins with a bang as the ISM manufacturing index is released half an hour into the open, and the week closes with the Employment Situation survey, a report that will have all the pundits talking on the Sunday morning news shows, especially if the unemployment rate inches closer to double-digits from the current 9.5% rate.

Key Releases This Week:

Monday:

10:00 â€