Waiting on Further Confirmation of Recovery

No significant data comes out Monday but the rest of the week should bring further confirmation that the economy turned a corner as the third quarter began in July. Thursday’s retail sales report is expected to show a broad rebound led by the “cash for clunkers” car-buying program that buoyed spirits in the last week of the month.

Consumer sentiment is also expected to increase, while jobless claims and inflation each moderate. All in, the week ahead should bring further optimism to the markets. 

“Reports and indicators from last week continued to build a strong case that the economy is now on the cusp of a recovery,” said economists from IHS Global Insight. “Indicators next week will almost be universally positive, confirming indeed that a production recovery started with a bang in the month of July.”

Aside from data, the Federal Reserve will host its two-day monetary policy meeting beginning Tuesday. Analysts broadly expect policy to remain unchanged, but they will be looking for signs that the exit strategy is already in motion.

Early Monday morning, futures are trading lower slightly, but that probably has more to do with profit taking from Friday’s gains. It certainly doesn’t seem like a bad time to sell: the S&P 500 has improved 14.5% since July 10 and a staggering 49.4% since March 10.

Key Releases this Week:

Tuesday:

8:30 â€