Leading Indicators Beat Consensus, Jump For 3rd Straight Month

by devteam July 20th, 2009 | Share

The economy improved for the third straight month in June, according to the Leading Indicators Index, a composite of ten data points that track turning points for the economy. 

“The recession has been losing steam since the spring, although very large job losses continue,” said Ken Goldstein, an economist at the Conference Board, who publish the composite.

The LEI advanced 0.7% in the month, beating consensus expectations by two-tenths but failing to match the previous month’s 1.3% gain. The advances were broad based with seven of the ten components inching up in June.

Seven Gains:

  • Interest rate spread: +0.35% in June; +0.31% in May.
  • Average manufacturing workweek: +0.06% in June;  -0.13% in May 
  • Jobless claims: +0.08% in June; -0.04% in May 
  • Consumer goods orders: +0.02% in June; -0.13% in May
  • Building permits: +0.22% in June; +0.11% in May
  • Pace of deliveries: +0.05% in June; +0.33% in May.
  • Stock prices: +0.10% in June; +0.24% in May)

Three Declines:

  • Non-defense capital goods orders: -0.06% in June; +0.17% in May.
  • M2 money supply: -0.08% in June; +0.25% in May. 
  • Consumer expectations: -0.01% in June; +0.18% in May.

“All in all, the behavior of the composite indexes suggest that the recession will continue to ease and that the economy may begin to recover in the near term,” said the Conference Board report.

Over the past six months the LEI has risen to 2.0%, up substantially from -3.1% for the previous six months. 

However, the Coincident Index â€

About the Author


Steven A Feinberg (@CPAsteve) of Appletree Business Services LLC, is a PASBA member accountant located in Londonderry, New Hampshire.

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